New Seat Details - Eastwood and Loudoun

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Eastwood and Loudoun been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	21,313	40.5%
SNP	17,616	33.4%
LAB	12,487	23.7%
LIB	1,253	2.4%
CON Majority	3,697	7.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Eastwood and Loudoun: Map

List of old seats forming part of Eastwood and Loudoun

Old seat: Kilmarnock and Loudoun

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Kilmarnock and Loudoun, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Kilmarnock and Loudoun				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Ayrshire	Annick	9,577	Eastwood and Loudoun	2,110	1,252	158	0	0	2,423	0	0	5,943
East Ayrshire	Ballochmyle	10,584	Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley	1,654	2,597	124	0	0	2,658	0	0	7,033
East Ayrshire	Cumnock and New Cumnock	28	Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley	4	7	0	0	0	6	0	0	17
East Ayrshire	Irvine Valley	11,054	Eastwood and Loudoun; Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley	2,207	1,704	136	0	0	3,145	0	0	7,192
East Ayrshire	Kilmarnock East and Hurlford	11,099	Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley	1,653	2,374	169	0	0	3,093	0	0	7,289
East Ayrshire	Kilmarnock North	9,044	Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley	1,480	1,704	122	0	0	2,843	0	0	6,149
East Ayrshire	Kilmarnock South	7,757	Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley	1,106	1,938	114	0	0	2,174	0	0	5,332
East Ayrshire	Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse	11,999	Kilmarnock, Cumnock and Doon Valley	2,190	1,844	171	0	0	3,348	0	0	7,553
	Total	71,142		12,404	13,420	994	0	0	19,690	0	0	46,508

The full details of these calculations are given on the Kilmarnock and Loudoun seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Renfrewshire East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Renfrewshire East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Renfrewshire East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Renfrewshire	Barrhead	12,285	Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley	3,031	3,803	92	0	0	3,566	0	0	10,492
East Renfrewshire	Busby, Clarkston and Eaglesham	10,700	Eastwood and Loudoun	3,624	2,029	207	0	0	2,565	0	0	8,425
East Renfrewshire	Giffnock and Thornliebank	10,689	Eastwood and Loudoun	2,826	2,479	314	0	0	2,734	0	0	8,353
East Renfrewshire	Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton Mearns North	14,121	Eastwood and Loudoun; Renfrewshire West and Garnock Valley	4,382	3,010	177	0	0	3,429	0	0	10,998
East Renfrewshire	Netherlee, Stamperland and Williamwood	10,313	Eastwood and Loudoun	3,052	2,116	250	0	0	2,573	0	0	7,991
East Renfrewshire	Newton Mearns South	9,598	Eastwood and Loudoun	4,580	909	71	0	0	1,919	0	0	7,479
	Total	67,706		21,495	14,346	1,111	0	0	16,786	0	0	53,738

The full details of these calculations are given on the Renfrewshire East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Eastwood and Loudoun

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Eastwood and Loudoun
East Ayrshire	Annick	9,370	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	2,110	1,252	158	0	0	2,423	0	0	5,943
East Ayrshire	Irvine Valley	11,154	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	2,171	1,676	134	0	0	3,094	0	0	7,075
East Renfrewshire	Busby, Clarkston and Eaglesham	10,986	Renfrewshire East	3,624	2,029	207	0	0	2,565	0	0	8,425
East Renfrewshire	Giffnock and Thornliebank	10,893	Renfrewshire East	2,826	2,479	314	0	0	2,734	0	0	8,353
East Renfrewshire	Neilston, Uplawmoor and Newton Mearns North	9,653	Renfrewshire East	2,950	2,026	119	0	0	2,308	0	0	7,403
East Renfrewshire	Netherlee, Stamperland and Williamwood	10,419	Renfrewshire East	3,052	2,116	250	0	0	2,573	0	0	7,991
East Renfrewshire	Newton Mearns South	9,750	Renfrewshire East	4,580	909	71	0	0	1,919	0	0	7,479
	Total	72,225		21,313	12,487	1,253	0	0	17,616	0	0	52,669

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Eastwood and Loudoun. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Paul Masterton (CON)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	72,226
Turnout:	72.9%

Eastwood and Loudoun: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Eastwood and Loudoun: Overview

Introduction